How to quantify the value of your fantasy football draft picks (2023)

What's valuable in the NFL? A great quarterback? Always - unless you're the Eagles and can win with a backup. A great running back? Not usually - unless you're the Rams and you've got Todd Gurley. A treasure chest of future second-round picks? Now you speak the language of Bill Belichick. Welcome to Value Week, as we take a look at what makes NFL teams tick - and what doesn't.

“I'm trying to trade in for a fifth round. I can offer my fifth and a ninth.”

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That was a message I got from another team owner in my fantasy football league last August. It's a keeper league with a snake draft so teams can trade both players and draft picks, and with the draft scheduled for later that night, a flurry of text flew around as people attempted drafts close. But I was frozen. My fifth-rounder was pick #44 and his was #50. Was it worth dropping six spots just to pick an extra ninth-rounder?

In our league, round five has added value as teams can retain up to four players per year, but each goaltender costs the team a draft pick in rounds one through four. So there was a chance that a really good player - maybe a rookie or a star who wouldn't fit into another team's roster - would sit in for me at Pick 44. I told the team owner that I would remain a sponsor for the time being.

"All right," he replied. "What about a seventh?"

I wouldn't have hesitated for a seventh. But unfortunately for him, I put my phone down and didn't see the text. A full 15 minutes elapsed, then he sent another offer:

"OK. I'm ready to offer you pick 50 and 51 for pick 44."

I saw this text - and my heart jumped. Do you also take the 51st selection only to move down six places? It was a no-brainer... but I couldn't admit how excited I was.

"Okay, I'll do that," I replied nonchalantly.

It was obviously overpayment on the part of my fellow fantasy player, but he was willing to do it to position himself for a high potential player. The entire interaction is symbolic of a conundrum affecting thousands of fantasy players across goaltenders, dynasties, and some traditional leagues: nobody has a clue how to evaluate draft picks. It's about time that changed.

In the 1990s, Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson wanted to quantify the value of NFL draft picks. He created onetraction chartThis has stood the test of time, although sports analysts have tried to improve his stats over the yearsdas Harvard Sports Analysis Collectivevalue chart tooFootball prospectsvalue calculator. Both use similar methods, averaging the career value of players selected with specific picks to try to determine the expected value of each selection. So I tried to do the same for Fantasy Football.

To determine each player's fantasy value, I usedPro Football References"VBD." VBD measures a player's contributions against a baseman—in the case of PFR, that's 12th quarterback in fantasy points, 24th running back, 30th wide receiver, or 12th tight end. VBD essentially shows how much better a player was at their position than the last starting player.

So how much VBD does everyone on the draft net find on average? To find out, I recorded the VBD of each player drafted from 2007 through 2017, averaged the value for each draft slot, and compared that to each player's average draft position on the Fantasy Football Calculator.which contains data going back to 2007. Then I added a logarithmic trendline to smooth the data and find a consistent expected value for each selection. The end result looks like this:

And here is the full table of values ​​along that trendline:

This table cycles through the first 180 picks, which corresponds to a 12-team, 15-round draft. If you need to trade a selection, this is itafterthe first 180...well...join another fantasy league.

Some conclusions can be drawn from this analysis. First, the average of the first overall pick is far higher than any other pick. That makes logical sense - sure, some years the best pick might be someone like David Johnson, who injured himself in Week 1 last season, but historically that pick is more likely to perform near LaDainian Tomlinson's level , who tore the league apart in the mid-1980s and often chaired the draft committee. If you have the first overall pick, hold on to it.

We can also look at which draft position is best. It's a question that often crops up in fantasy circles: is it better to pluck first but then have to wait for the draft to meander around again? Or does it make more sense to have later picks in the first round and earlier picks in even-numbered rounds?

This analysis shows that the sooner you draft, the better. Across 15 rounds, the top position in a 12-team draft has a total of 289.2, while the bottom position has 252.6. It's been a steady decline throughout, with the differences becoming less dramatic the further one gets from the top overall position. The same is true for a 10-team draft where the top drafter has 333.0 points and the 10th draft team has 299.3.

To put that in context, let's go back to the trade I took last year. We already knew I got a good deal - now we can quantify it. Looking at the chart, we can see that the value flattens out in the fifth round - so much so that it turns out that the 44th pick is worth little more than the 50th pick. In trade #44 for #50 and 51, I gained 20.2 value points, basically the equivalent of the 58th overall pick. Even a 9th round would have represented overpayment. I would have acted no. 44 for #50 and #90 I would have gained 10.3 value points - essentially equal to the 103rd pick. Moving down six spots in Round 5 just doesn't have a huge impact on the player level available, so almost any additional picks I could make make this deal worth it.

This actually puzzled me: If I had had this chart last year, I would have accepted that first trade, no. 50 and a nine-rounder. What that actually meansnotHaving this chart last year helped me.

Of course, the way my league is set up, a fifth-rounder is worth more than in a typical draft, which makes an important point: Just like with the NFL draft, a table of values ​​can only ever be used as a rough guide. It might not make sense to just pull a Bill Belichick and keep trading backwards, even if this chart suggests you would gain value by doing so - there are only a finite number of slots on a fantasy list. It also may not make sense to put together a mega package for the top overall pick because while the value may theoretically be there, you would be taking a massive risk by putting all your eggs in one basket that this chart can't capture.

But does it make sense to bring in an additional late mover just to slip six places down? It does. Hell it's an even better deal than I thought it was a year ago. So going into my draft with this card this year, I know I won't be flying blind like that again. And if someone offers me an additional choice to go back, I won't hesitate.